Hey everyone, welcome back.

My name is Adam Hancock, and today we’re talking about the always-fun topic of home prices.

Frankly, the last six years have been weird. We’re sitting here in early April 2026, and if I look back to when I started this channel in January 2020, everything changed almost immediately after. The world shut down, people were scared to leave their homes, and then shortly after that—especially here in Sarasota, Florida—we saw a massive shift.

The Last 6 Years Changed Everything

One of the biggest things to understand is this: not all places experienced the same thing.

While some cities were locked down hard, Florida felt completely different. People from places like Chicago, Washington DC, New York, New Jersey, and even Canada started relocating. What felt restrictive elsewhere felt like freedom here.

You had people who were already planning to retire—but they moved earlier than expected. Then you had younger people tied to jobs in big cities who suddenly realized they could work remotely. If you can earn New York income while living somewhere cheaper and sunnier, that changes everything.

On top of that, people migrating from the western U.S.—California, Washington, Nevada—either stopped in places like Arizona or Texas… and some of them ended up moving again when those places didn’t work out.

All of this collided at once.

And Florida—especially Sarasota—became one of the biggest winners.

Why Demand Exploded

What happened wasn’t normal.

You had:

• Early retirees accelerating their plans

• Remote workers relocating permanently

• High-income earners moving to lower-cost areas

• Migration from other “boom” states like Texas

That created unnatural demand in the housing market.

Now fast forward to 2026, and people are asking:

• Are prices falling?

• Did we hit the peak?

• Am I going to make a bad decision?

There’s also fatigue. People feel like they got taken for a ride during the boom years, especially with how aggressive builders were.

Now everyone’s cautious.

What People Think Is Happening

If you look online, you’ll mostly see two extremes:

• “Prices are crashing”

• “Everything is stable”

The truth is—it’s somewhere in the middle.

A lot of headlines are misleading because they’re designed to grab attention. Even something like this title (“Florida Home Prices Are Falling”) is something people would search—but it doesn’t tell the full story.

Most advice you see is too broad to actually be useful.

The Reality: It’s a Split Market

What’s actually happening is much more nuanced.

Real estate is affected by:

• Interest rates

• Financing vs cash

• Inventory

• New construction

• Location

• Timing

And the biggest issue?
If you change one variable, everything changes.

Change the location → everything resets
Change the timing → everything resets

That’s why general advice doesn’t work.

Even within Florida, it’s not one market.

Florida Is Not One Market

Florida breaks down into different regions:

• Southwest Florida (Sarasota, Tampa, Naples)

• Central Florida (Orlando, Lakeland)

• Atlantic Coast (Jacksonville to Miami)

• Panhandle (completely different feel)

Each area behaves differently.

And within each area, pricing varies based on:

• Distance to the coast

• Age of homes

• New construction vs resale

• Lifestyle factors

That’s why making decisions based purely on price doesn’t work.

Why Price Shouldn’t Be Your First Filter

Most people think:

“I’ll pick where I live based on price.”

But that’s backwards.

Price matters—but it matters later in the process.

What you shouldn’t do is sacrifice what you actually want early on just to chase a cheaper number.

A better approach:

• Start with what you want (location, lifestyle)

• Then adjust within that market based on budget

You can almost always find a version of what you want—you just have to know where to look.

What’s Actually Happening With Prices (2019–2026)

Here’s the simplest way to understand it:

We had a massive run-up from 2019 to 2022.

Then a cooling period from 2023 to 2025.

Now in 2026, we’re stabilizing.

In Sarasota as an example:

• 2019: ~$300,000 median price

• 2022: ~$500,000 median price

• 2025: ~$460,000 median price

• 2026 (YTD): ~$479,000

So yes—prices dropped slightly.

But zoom out:

Prices went up $200,000, and then dropped about $30,000–$40,000.

That’s not a crash.

That’s stabilization after a massive jump.

The Key Takeaway

The “falling prices” narrative is technically true—but incomplete.

What’s really happening:

• Prices surged dramatically

• Then pulled back slightly

• Now sitting at a new baseline

We didn’t go back to 2019 pricing—and it’s very unlikely we will.

How You Should Approach Buying Right Now

Instead of trying to perfectly time the market, focus on this:

1. Figure out where you actually want to live

2. Understand what your ideal setup looks like

3. Adjust within that market based on budget

4. Look at recent data (2025 vs 2026 YTD)

5. Make a decision you won’t regret

Trying to “win” by timing the market perfectly usually doesn’t work.

What matters more is:

• Lifestyle fit

• Location

• Long-term satisfaction

Final Thoughts

Yes, prices are falling in some areas.

Yes, there are more opportunities than before.

But we’re not going back to pre-2020 pricing.

The market has reset.

So the real question isn’t:

“Are prices falling?”

It’s:

“Am I making a decision I won’t regret later?”

Because at the end of the day, that’s what actually matters.